DTN Midday Grain Comments 01/14 10:55
Corn Up, Soybeans Down Midday Friday
Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher, beans are 4 to 5 cents lower and wheat is
2 to 7 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow off 310 points. The U.S. Dollar
Index is 0.25 higher. Interest rate products are mostly lower. Energies are
firmer with crude up 1.15. Livestock trade is sharply higher. Precious metals
are weaker with gold off $4.00.
Corn trade is 3 to 4 cents higher at midday Friday with firmer spread trade
as we continue to hold nearby support levels with the recent sideways action.
Ethanol margins will continue to be squeezed by tepid short-term demand with
production expected to slide further as demand looks to remain soft into next
week. Basis should remain rangebound to slightly weaker short term with weather
likely to slow short-term movement. Trade will continue watching South American
weather more as we get closer to the key weather time frames on new crop as
well as soybean progress for the timing of double-crop planting. The daily
export wire showed 100,422 metric tons sold to Mexico. On the March contract,
we have resistance at the 20-day moving average at $5.99 then the lower
Bollinger Band at $5.85 as further support.
Soybean trade is 4 to 5 cents lower with light two-sided trade so far, after
testing the early week lows at the start of the overnight session with position
squaring likely into the long weekend as trade looks to see if the awaited
rains hit the dry areas in South America. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 lower and oil
is 0.05 cent to 0.15 cent lower. Basis remains mostly flat short term with the
export wire quiet Friday. Crush margins remain solid with future renewable
diesel demand likely to keep good support under oil going forward. The daily
wire showed 100,000 metric tons of meal sold to Spain for new crop. On the
March soybean chart, we have resistance at the fresh high at $14.15 which we
scored a week ago, and the 20-day well below the market at $13.61 as support.
Wheat trade is 2 to 7 cents lower with Chicago trade trying to turn the
corner at midday, along with Minneapolis trying to stabilize the recent washout
after dropping from $10.00 to sub $9.00 in 8 sessions. The dollar continues to
work sideways at the lower end of the range. Weather in the Plains looks drier
with a little snow cover out of the last system while temps continue to
fluctuate keeping stress intact and other Northern Hemisphere weather concerns
fading for the moment while political fears ramp up again. Spring wheat is
weaker versus Chicago moving the premium to 1.46 cents on the March, with KC at
an 8-cent premium in weaker action as well. KC March chart support is the lower
Bollinger Band at $7.42 with the 20-day at $8.04, still well above the market.
David Fiala can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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